牛鞭效應的影響因素及其應對策略探討提綱
摘 要
牛鞭效應是供應鏈中一類典型的、由不確定性導致的復雜現象。它是供應鏈中成員理想行為導致的，是一種需求變異放大現象，信息傳遞時因無法實現共享而產生扭曲，這種信息放大現象在圖形上很像一根甩起的趕牛鞭，根部（最下游客戶端)只要發生輕微抖動，就會引起末梢（原始供應商端）較大的波動，牛鞭效應可以使節點成員蒙受損失，削弱整體競爭力。
牛鞭效應對企業的效益甚至整個國家的經濟會造成嚴重的影響，多年來一直受到人們的關注。減小供應鏈中的牛鞭效應是實現供應鏈管理的關鍵，也是提升供應鏈企業競爭力的有效方式之一。
本文在總結前人研究結果的基礎上，集中闡述了供應鏈管理、牛鞭效應的相關概念及內涵，對牛鞭效應產生原因從系統原因和技術原因兩個層面進行了深刻的分析，在此基礎上討論并研究了牛鞭效應對供應鏈管理以及國民經濟造成的危害，并就如何弱化牛鞭效應提出了個人的看法。
本文從供應鏈管理的角度進行了概括分析。全文共分為四個部分：措施做了展望和分析。
本文的創新是要體現在從系統和技術兩個方面綜合分析牛鞭效應的產生原因，并在此基礎上討論分析了牛鞭效應的弱化措施，如信息共享系統，大規模定制策略，戰略同盟等等。
關鍵詞：供應鏈管理；牛鞭效應；信息共享系統；供應商管理庫存
Abstract
The Bullwhip Effect is a typical things in the supply chains, which is caused by the uncertainty complex situation. It is resulted from the members of the supply chains.
The Bullwhip Effect is effected in the enterprise or even the whole national economy. How to decrease the Bullwhip Effect of the supply chain is a key to the supply chain managment, also is an importaint way to enhance competitiveness of enterprises in the supply chain.
The paper focuses on asset the Bullwhip Effect and supply chain managment, and its related concept and connotation. It analyses system reasons and technical reasons.Based on that, this paper disgusts and studies the harm of Bullwhip Effect to supply chain managment and national economy. And then put the personal views of how to weaken the Bullwhip Effect.
This article is fixed on the supply chain management. And it contains four parts: the first part discussed the system reasons and technical reasons to the Bullwhip Effect; the second part analysis the harms to the supply chain management and national economy from both the macro and micro; the third part arising the ways of how to weakening the effects of the Bullwhip Effect. Finally making the outlook and analysis of weakening the Bullwhip Effect.
The main innovation in the paper is reflected in analyseing the system reasons and technical reasons of the Bullwhip Effect, and then analysis the weakening measures of the Bullwhip Effect,such as mass customization,strategy strategic alliance, information-sharing systems and so on.
Key words: Supply Chain Management；Bullwhip Effect；Information-sharing Systems；Vinder Management Inventory
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